Leveraging investment in agricultural science, technology, and innovation in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Climate change poses severe impacts on and risks to agriculture, food, and nutrition, particularly for smallholders. Agricultural researchers are tasked with deciphering interconnected variables-from soil characteristics and nutrient cycles to water and biodiversity-to create a robust framework for technological advancements. Increasing sustainability, resilience, and productivity is an urgent need that requires approaches to research and innovation tailored to both regional and country-specific challenges. One compelling model of regional collaboration is FONTAGRO, the Regional Fund for Agricultural Technology, which for 25 years has combined public and private institutions in supporting science, technology, and innovation within the agrifood sector in Latin American and the Caribbean. The science-based evidence that emerges is strategic not only for its local application but also for its potential in other regions of the world and capacity to accelerate the transformation of agrifood systems.

Economic potential of essential oil production from New Zealand-grown Eucalyptus bosistoana.

Farm foresters and other growers are establishing a ground-durable hardwood resource, including the emerging plantation species Eucalyptus bosistoana in New Zealand. The foliage of this species contains essential oils in quantity and quality suitable for commercial extraction. Essential oil production could improve the economic viability of E. bosistoana plantations, diversifying the grower's income and providing an early revenue stream. This study assessed the economic potential for essential oil production from New Zealand grown E. bosistoana plantations. A sensitivity analysis indicated that uncertainty of leaf biomass availability, genetic as well as seasonal changes in oil content, and fluctuations in essential oil price are equally important on the viability of an essential oil operation. Small-scale essential oil production could be sustainably supplied with foliage from thinning and pruning operations sourced from the envisaged regional planting programmes and commence in 3-5 years. A large-scale operation could be supplied when trees will be harvested. Lastly, based on the operational costs of a domestic small-scale essential oil producer, oil value from E. bosistoana would exceed the cost of production.

Early contact between late farming and pastoralist societies in southeastern Europe.

Archaeogenetic studies have described two main genetic turnover events in prehistoric western Eurasia: one associated with the spread of farming and a sedentary lifestyle starting around 7000-6000 BC (refs. 1-3) and a second with the expansion of pastoralist groups from the Eurasian steppes starting around 3300 BC (refs. 4,5). The period between these events saw new economies emerging on the basis of key innovations, including metallurgy, wheel and wagon and horse domestication6-9. However, what happened between the demise of the Copper Age settlements around 4250 BC and the expansion of pastoralists remains poorly understood. To address this question, we analysed genome-wide data from 135 ancient individuals from the contact zone between southeastern Europe and the northwestern Black Sea region spanning this critical time period. While we observe genetic continuity between Neolithic and Copper Age groups from major sites in the same region, from around 4500 BC on, groups from the northwestern Black Sea region carried varying amounts of mixed ancestries derived from Copper Age groups and those from the forest/steppe zones, indicating genetic and cultural contact over a period of around 1,000 years earlier than anticipated. We propose that the transfer of critical innovations between farmers and transitional foragers/herders from different ecogeographic zones during this early contact was integral to the formation, rise and expansion of pastoralist groups around 3300 BC.

Narrowing yield gaps does not guarantee a living income from smallholder farming-an empirical study from western Kenya.

Crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa need to increase to keep pace with food demands from the burgeoning population. Smallholder farmers play an important role in national food self-sufficiency, yet many live in poverty. Investing in inputs to increase yields is therefore often not viable for them. To investigate how to unlock this paradox, whole-farm experiments can reveal which incentives could increase farm production while also increasing household income. In this study we investigated the impact of providing farmers with a US$ 100 input voucher each season, for five seasons in a row, on maize yields and overall farm-level production in two contrasting locations in terms of population density, Vihiga and Busia, in western Kenya. We compared the value of farmers' produce with the poverty line and the living income threshold. Crop yields were mainly limited by cash constraints and not by technological constraints as maize yield immediately increased from 16% to 40-50% of the water-limited yield with the provision of the voucher. In Vihiga, at best, one-third of the participating households reached the poverty line. In Busia half of the households reached the poverty line and one-third obtained a living income. This difference between locations was caused by larger farm areas in Busia. Although one third of the households increased the area farmed, mostly by renting land, this was not enough for them to obtain a living income. Our results provide empirical evidence of how a current smallholder farming system could improve its productivity and value of produce upon the introduction of an input voucher. We conclude that increasing yields of the currently most common crops cannot provide a living income for all households and additional institutional changes, such as alternative employment, are required to provide smallholder farmers a way out of poverty.

Optimal nitrogen rate strategy for sustainable rice production in China.

Avoiding excessive agricultural nitrogen (N) use without compromising yields has long been a priority for both research and government policy in China1,2. Although numerous rice-related strategies have been proposed3-5, few studies have assessed their impacts on national food self-sufficiency and environmental sustainability and fewer still have considered economic risks faced by millions of smallholders. Here we established an optimal N rate strategy based on maximizing either economic (ON) or ecological (EON) performance using new subregion-specific models. Using an extensive on-farm dataset, we then assessed the risk of yield losses among smallholder farmers and the challenges of implementing the optimal N rate strategy. We find that meeting national rice production targets in 2030 is possible while concurrently reducing nationwide N consumption by 10% (6-16%) and 27% (22-32%), mitigating reactive N (Nr) losses by 7% (3-13%) and 24% (19-28%) and increasing N-use efficiency by 30% (3-57%) and 36% (8-64%) for ON and EON, respectively. This study identifies and targets subregions with disproportionate environmental impacts and proposes N rate strategies to limit national Nr pollution below proposed environmental thresholds, without compromising soil N stocks or economic benefits for smallholders. Thereafter, the preferable N strategy is allocated to each region based on the trade-off between economic risk and environmental benefit. To facilitate the adoption of the annually revised subregional N rate strategy, several recommendations were provided, including a monitoring network, fertilization quotas and smallholder subsidies.

Ageing threatens sustainability of smallholder farming in China.

Rapid demographic ageing substantially affects socioeconomic development1-4 and presents considerable challenges for food security and agricultural sustainability5-8, which have so far not been well understood. Here, by using data from more than 15,000 rural households with crops but no livestock across China, we show that rural population ageing reduced farm size by 4% through transferring cropland ownership and land abandonment (approximately 4 million hectares) in 2019, taking the population age structure in 1990 as a benchmark. These changes led to a reduction of agricultural inputs, including chemical fertilizers, manure and machinery, which decreased agricultural output and labour productivity by 5% and 4%, respectively, further lowering farmers' income by 15%. Meanwhile, fertilizer loss increased by 3%, resulting in higher pollutant emissions to the environment. In new farming models, such as cooperative farming, farms tend to be larger and operated by younger farmers, who have a higher average education level, hence improving agricultural management. By encouraging the transition to new farming models, the negative consequences of ageing can be reversed. Agricultural input, farm size and farmer's income would grow by approximately 14%, 20% and 26%, respectively, and fertilizer loss would reduce by 4% in 2100 compared with that in 2020. This suggests that management of rural ageing will contribute to a comprehensive transformation of smallholder farming to sustainable agriculture in China.

Enabling forecasts of environmental exposure to chemicals in European agriculture under global change.

European agricultural development in the 21st century will be affected by a host of global changes, including climate change, changes in agricultural technologies and practices, and a shift towards a circular economy. The type and quantity of chemicals used, emitted, and cycled through agricultural systems in Europe will change, driven by shifts in the use patterns of pesticides, veterinary pharmaceuticals, reclaimed wastewater used for irrigation, and biosolids. Climate change will also impact the chemical persistence, fate, and transport processes that dictate environmental exposure. Here, we review the literature to identify research that will enable scenario-based forecasting of environmental exposures to organic chemicals in European agriculture under global change. Enabling exposure forecasts requires understanding current and possible future 1.) emissions, 2.) persistence and transformation, and 3.) fate and transport of agricultural chemicals. We discuss current knowledge in these three areas, the impact global change drivers may have on them, and we identify knowledge and data gaps that must be overcome to enable predictive scenario-based forecasts of environmental exposure under global change. Key research gaps identified are: improved understanding of relationships between global change and chemical emissions in agricultural settings; better understanding of environment-microbe interactions in the context of chemical degradation under future conditions; and better methods for downscaling climate change-driven intense precipitation events for chemical fate and transport modelling. We introduce a set of narrative Agricultural Chemical Exposure (ACE) scenarios - augmenting the IPCC's Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) - as a framework for forecasting chemical exposure in European agriculture. The proposed ACE scenarios cover a plausible range of optimistic to pessimistic 21st century development pathways. Filling the knowledge and data gaps identified within this study and using the ACE scenario approach for chemical exposure forecasting will support stakeholder planning and regulatory intervention strategies to ensure European agricultural practices develop in a sustainable manner.

Economic incentives drive the conversion of agriculture to aquaculture in the Indian Sundarbans: Livelihood and environmental implications of different aquaculture types.

Expansion of aquaculture in the Sundarbans Biosphere Reserve (SBR) is irreversibly replacing agricultural land and the drivers of this change are disputed. Based on in-depth interviews with 67 aquaculture farmers, this paper characterizes major aquaculture types in the SBR, their impacts, and identifies drivers of conversion from agricultural land. Aquaculture types included traditional, improved-traditional, modified-extensive, and semi-intensive systems. Extensive capture of wild shrimp larvae is environmentally harmful but constitutes an important livelihood. Semi-intensive aquaculture of exotic shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) has much higher unit-area profitability than other types but involves greater financial risk. Profitability is the main driver for the transition from agriculture, but environmental factors such as lowered crop yields and cyclone impacts also contributed. Many conversions from agriculture to aquaculture are illegal according to the stakeholders. Existing legislation, if enforced, could halt the loss of agriculture, while the promotion of improved-traditional aquaculture could reduce the demand for wild seed.

How livelihood capital affects farmers' willingness to pay for farmland non-market value? Evidence from Jianghan Plain, China.

Farmland not only provides human being with food and industrial materials, but also has non-market value. However, few studies have explored the impact of livelihood capital configuration and their willingness to pay (WTP) for the farmland non-market value, from farmers' perspective. Based on the field survey data of 434 households in Jianghan Plain, China, this paper divided the research process into two stages to explore the impact of farmers' livelihood capital on their WTP by using binary logistics model and qualitative comparative analysis method of fuzzy sets (fsQCA). The results show that (1) The total livelihood capital of farmers was 2.667, with psychological capital 0.649, natural capital 0.621, social capital 0.127. 79.49% of the households were willing to pay for the farmland non-market value, and the most concentrated range of it is 50-200 yuan/hm2. (2) Both social capital and psychological capital had positive impacts on farmers' WTP for the non-market value of farmland protection. (3) There were two livelihood capital configurations that could improve the WTP of farmers. When lacking of human capital, physical capital and psychological capital, the improvement in farmers' financial capital and social capital will improve farmers' WTP. When the natural, financial, and psychological capital are poor, the rich human capital, physical capital and social capital will also increase farmers' WTP. In view of the results, policy implications on livelihood capital structure optimization and ecological compensation system differentiation were proposed.

Analysis of competitive and comparative advantages of potato production in Indonesia.

Fundamental issues in sustainable development of competitive potato production in Indonesia are production and distribution inefficiencies. This study aims to examine the potato production competitiveness through competitive and comparative analyses as well as evaluating the impacts of government policy on potato production. This study employs Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) to analyse the cross-section data collected from six regencies in Indonesia. Potato production in Indonesia was profitable privately and socially. The highest value of competitive advantage was indicated by PCR value in the dry season in Wonosobo Regency, Central Java Province. The lowest values were found in Bandung Regency. Highest comparative advantage was revealed in Tanah Karo Regency, North Sumatra Province, during the rainy season. Highest comparative advantage was found in Bandung Regency, West Java Province, in the dry season. However, the social profit was lower than the private profit indicating the potato farmers dealt with disincentives due to imperfect market. It implies that increasing domestic potato production will be more profitable rather than import. The policy makers need to evaluate the recent policies on input and output markets as well as the supply chain of potato to cope with imperfect markets in order to increase farmers' income.

Global cropland could be almost halved: Assessment of land saving potentials under different strategies and implications for agricultural markets.

The pressure on land resources continuously increases not only with the rising demand for agricultural commodities, but also with the growing need for action on global challenges, such as biodiversity loss or climate change, where land plays a crucial role. Land saving as a strategy, where agricultural productivity is increased to allow a reduction of required cropland while sustaining production volumes and meeting demand, could address this trade-off. With our interdisciplinary model-based study, we globally assess regional potentials of land saving and analyze resulting effects on agricultural production, prices and trade. Thereby, different land saving strategies are investigated that (1) minimize required cropland (2) minimize spatial marginalization induced by land saving and (3) maximize the attainable profit. We find that current cropland requirements could be reduced between 37% and 48%, depending on the applied land saving strategy. The generally more efficient use of land would cause crop prices to fall in all regions, but also trigger an increase in global agricultural production of 2.8%. While largest land saving potentials occur in regions with high yield gaps, the impacts on prices and production are strongest in highly populated regions with already high pressure on land. Global crop prices and trade affect regional impacts of land saving on agricultural markets and can displace effects to spatially distant regions. Our results point out the importance of investigating the potentials and effects of land saving in the context of global markets within an integrative, global framework. The resulting land saving potentials can moreover reframe debates on global potentials for afforestation and carbon sequestration, as well as on how to reconcile agricultural production and biodiversity conservation and thus contribute to approaching central goals of the 21st century, addressed for example in the Sustainable Development Goals, the Paris Agreement or the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

Food system resilience thinking: from digital to integral.

The current food system is directly influenced by the increase in environmental problems and nutritional inequality globally. Financial and political collapses, health crises, excessive urbanization, and rapid industrialization are some of the principal factors threatening the food supply's security. The food system needs a profound transformation to avoid ecosystem destabilization and a global food crisis. Concerning this transformation, we are certain that the first step for a successful food system change is global resilience thinking. To reach an integrated food system, we proposed introducing the resilient concept linked with other known concepts, such as circular economy and sustainability. A resilient food system can recover over time, ensuring the supply of sustainable and quality food and access to all. This would mean redesigning the value chains in the food system, re-educating consumers to implement a healthier diet, and introducing technology such as digital innovation. Re-evaluating these relevant points, redesigning the focus of the food system, not only for economic efficiency but also including significant trade-offs, or valuing other services in the food system, are essential to reaching the desired resilience. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Identification of climate induced optimal rice yield and vulnerable districts rankings of the Punjab, Pakistan.

The study attracted to insinuate the inhabitant anomalies of the crop yield in the districts of the Punjab where climate variation, inputs utilization, and district exponents are indispensable factors. Impact evaluation of sowing and harvesting dates for rice yield has been analyzed. Suitable sowing and harvesting dates and potential districts for the crop are proposed. Data consisting of 13,617 observations of more than 90 factors encompassing valuable dimensions of the growth of the crops collected through comprehensive surveys conducted by the Agriculture Department of Punjab are formulated to incorporate in this study. The results establish the significant negative repercussions of climate variability while the impacts vary in the districts. The crop yield deteriorates considerably by delaying the sowing and harvesting times. Districts climate-induced vulnerability ranking revealed Layyah, Jhelum, Mianwali, Khanewal and Chinniot, the most vulnerable while Kasur, Gujrat, Mandi Bhauddin, Nankana Sahib and Hafizabad, the least vulnerable districts. Spatial mapping explains the geographical pattern of vulnerabilities and yield/monetary losses. The study ranks districts using climate-induced yield and monetary loss (222.30 thousand metric tons of rice which are equal to 27.79 billion PKR climatic losses in single rice season) and recommends: the formation of district policy to abate the adverse climate impact, utilization of suitable climate variation by adhering proper sowing and harvesting times, setting the prioritized districts facing climate-induced losses for urgent attention and preferable districts for rice crop.

Impact persistence of stock market risks in commodity markets: Evidence from China.

The risk spillover among financial markets has been noticeably investigated in a burgeoning number of literature. Given those doctrines, we scrutinize the impact persistence of volatility spillover and illiquidity spillover of Chinese commodity markets in this paper. Based on the sample from 2010 to 2020, we reveal that there is a cross-market spillover of volatility and illiquidity in China and also, interactions between volatility and illiquidity in different financial markets are pronounced. More importantly, we demonstrate that different commodity markets have different responsiveness to stock market shocks, which embeds their market characteristics. Specifically, we discover that the majority of the traders in gold market might be hedger and therefore gold market is more sensitive to stock market illiquidity shock and thus the shock impact in persistent. On the other hand, agricultural markets like corn and soybean markets might be dominated by investors and thus those markets respond to the stock market volatility shocks and the shock impact in persistent over 10 periods given the first period of risk shock happening. In fact, different Chinese commodity markets' responsiveness towards Chinese stock market risk shocks indicates the stock market risk impact persistence in Chinese commodity markets. This result can help policymakers to understand the policy propagation effect according to this risk spillover channel and risk impact persistence mechanism in China.

"Reverse engineering" research portfolio synergies and tradeoffs from domain expertise in minimum data contexts.

In research portfolio planning contexts, an estimate of research policy and project synergies/tradeoffs (i.e. covariances) is essential to the optimal leveraging of institution resources. The data by which to make such estimates generally do not exist. Research institutions may often draw on domain expertise to fill this gap, but it is not clear how such ad hoc information can be quantified and fed into an optimal resource allocation workflow. Drawing on principal components analysis, I propose a method for "reverse engineering" synergies/tradeoffs from domain expertise at both the policy and project level. I discuss extensions to other problems and detail how the method can be fed into a research portfolio optimization workflow. I also briefly discuss the relevance of the proposed method in the context of the currently toxic relations between research communities and the donors that fund them.